Common Probability Errors to Avoid
Use this probability primer to improve your thinking
Amateurs tend to focus on seeking brilliance. Professionals often know that it’s far more effective to avoid stupidity. Side-stepping typical blunders is the simplest way to get ahead of the crowd.
Gaining a better understanding of probability will give you a more accurate picture of the world and help you make better decisions. However, many people fall prey to the same handful of issues because aspects of probability go against what we think is intuitive. Even if you haven’t studied the topic since high-school, you likely use probability assessments every single day in your work and life.
In Naked Statistics, Charles Wheelan takes the reader on a whistlestop tour of the basics of statistics. In one chapter, he offers pointers for avoiding some of the “most common probability-related errors, misunderstandings, and ethical dilemmas.” Whether you’re somewhat new to the topic or just want a refresher, here’s a summary of Wheelan’s lessons and how you can apply them.
Please select this link to read the complete article from Farnam Street.