“But….all of our models have accuracies above 90 percent…our system should be working perfectly!”
Those were the words spoken by the CEO of a mid-sized manufacturing company. These comments were made during a conversation about their various forecasting models and the poor performance of those models.
This CEO had spent about a million dollars over the last few years with a consulting company who had been tasked with creating new methods and models for forecasting sales and manufacturing. Over the previous decade, the company had done very well for themselves using a very manual and instinct-driven process to forecast sales and the manufacture processes needed to ensure sales targets were met.
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