Seasonal forecasting has come a long way since the days when people tried to foretell the severity of the coming winter by examining the color of caterpillars or the abundance of acorns. The forecast shown above is a blend of seasonal climate models from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada — a "wisdom of the crowds" technique that yields more accurate seasonal forecasts.
Although the accuracy of this forecast has not been statistically assessed, it has performed well in recent years, particularly in the East — excluding the winter of 2020-2021, when a wobbly polar vortex unleashed more snow than was predicted. Even the most powerful supercomputer cannot anticipate a surprise nor’easter or an unseasonable warm spell months in advance, but seasonal forecasts tend to perform better when they can be traced to climatic conditions that are known to influence seasonal weather patterns.
This winter, two strong climate drivers churning in the Pacific Ocean give more confidence to the low-snowfall forecast.
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